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Strategy Tomasz Tunguz · Oct 13

The Theory 2026 AI Survey Results

Theory's second annual AI in Practice Survey finds four results that surprised us : 43% rate security a top pain against the 10% who say its tooling delivers value, 45% of teams route queries across models, Cloudflare hosts 62% of agent sandboxes, & 48% now read production logs with coding agents.

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Strategy CB Insights

CEO Interview: Clair

Nico Simko, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Clair, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company. How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? 60% of Americans … The post CEO Interview: Clair appeared first on CB Insights Research .

Oct 09, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

Executive Interview: Gotomarket

Denis Bogdanovich, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Gotomarket, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company. How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? We built B2B Go-To-Market … The post Executive Interview: Gotomarket appeared first on CB Insights Research .

Sep 18, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Harness Margin Opportunity

A UC Berkeley study finds the harness sets the price of an answer : GPT-5.6 Sol costs 71% less on Pi than on Claude Code, the same model returning the same result, & none of the 42 harness comparisons shows a statistically significant quality difference. Two startups bidding on the same $250k contract earn 38% & 75% gross margins depending on what …

Sep 17, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

CEO Interview: 12x AI

Greg Fields, CEO of 12x AI, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company. How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? We’re tackling the global mental health … The post CEO Interview: 12x AI appeared first on CB Insights Research .

Aug 28, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

Groq’s $350M mega-round and ITC Vegas 2026

Below, we break down some of tech’s biggest stories, with analyst perspective on the moves that matter the most. Here’s what we’re watching this week: ITC Vegas 2026 Virtue AI gets acquired by Fortinet Groq raises $350M This brief is … The post Groq’s $350M mega-round and ITC Vegas 2026 appeared first on CB Insights Research .

Aug 20, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Who Buys SOTA?

State of the art models are two-thirds smarter than last November & labs ship two new models every three days. But 84% of tokens on OpenRouter are not state of the art. The six models carrying the supermajority deliver about 77% of frontier performance at 2.5% of Claude Fable 5's price. Ramp's data shows price elasticity in the market. Frontier mod…

Aug 14, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

Executive Interview: OutcomesAI

David Plummer, CCO at OutcomesAI, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company. How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? OutcomesAI has built what we call GLIA, … The post Executive Interview: OutcomesAI appeared first on CB Insights Research .

Aug 05, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Aftermarket Harnesses

Focus on optimizing the tools and frameworks around your core product, as they can significantly enhance performance and cost-effectiveness. Prioritize co-designing systems that leverage existing resources intelligently, as this will drive better outcomes than relying solely on the inherent capabilities of the product itself.

Jul 28, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Google's Cloud Revenue Matches NVIDIA's Growth Rate

Monitor convergence trends between competitors to identify emerging market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly. When growth rates align, it often signals a shift in demand or competitive positioning that requires proactive decision-making.

Jul 22, 2026

Strategy Benedict Evans

AI, tools and transformation

It’s very tempting to imagine that AI turns everyone into a tool-builder - now everyone can just ask the model to make the software they need, and apps as we know them are dead. I think that misunderstands how most people think and where software actually comes from, and more importantly, it isn’t a path to change how companies actually work.

Sep 03, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Ads Model for Prompt Integration in AI

Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 prices inference at two levels : $1.25/$4.25 per million tokens for private data, & $0.10/$0.20 for training consent : a 92% price spread. Michael Mauboussin taught that market prices contain information about underlying expectations. This spread establishes a liquid clearing price of $1.24/m tokens for user & agent prompt dat…

Sep 03, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

AI Productivity Doesn't Mean What I Think It Means

Over three years of testing AI writing systems, one-shot prompt templates failed. The working architecture is a closed-loop taste flywheel where draft versions collapse from 47 to 3, yet line-level edits remain flat at 130 per post. AI does not just save time; it raises the ceiling of what the same effort produces. The real question is whether we a…

Sep 01, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

NVIDIA's $108B quarterคณะกรรม樯enzie删除不必要的单位符和确保标题简洁性,优化后的标题为: NVIDIA posts $108B quarter

NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96b with a $108b Q3 guide, but hyperscale revenue grew only 13% sequentially against 25% for everyone else. To fund the buyers filling that gap, NVIDIA extended payment terms — DSO rose from 45 to 60 days & receivables hit $63b — & built a $581b stack of supply commitments, power guarantees, leases & $101b of equit…

Aug 26, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

NVIDIA's $108B quarter

NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96b with a $108b Q3 guide, but hyperscale revenue grew only 13% sequentially against 25% for everyone else. To fund the buyers filling that gap, NVIDIA extended payment terms — DSO rose from 45 to 60 days & receivables hit $63b — & built a $581b stack of supply commitments, power guarantees, leases & $101b of equit…

Aug 26, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Mainframes became personal. So will data centers.

Local models now answer 89% of everyday chat & reasoning queries as well as frontier models, & their efficiency per watt has improved 5.3x in two years.

Aug 21, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Birds Don't Fly Like Planes. Neither Does AI

Qwen3.6-35B-A3B generates 2.2x faster than Qwen3.8-27B, yet finishes slower because it thinks 3.1x longer. Across 25 tasks, quality is tied. Measure time to answer, not token speed.

Aug 18, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

A Winner in Every Category

Despite historic lows in public software multiples, each category has one name at a large premium to its peers: CrowdStrike 3.9x its Security median, Cloudflare 3.4x Infrastructure, Shopify 8.1x Commerce. Most disclose no AI revenue. Since 2021 the ceiling fell from 100x to 34x & only eleven names clear 10x.

Aug 11, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

AI Hitches ARR Growth

Three AI companies crossed $100m ARR within nine months & were valued at 50x, 56x & 100x revenue. Growth rate does not explain the gap: the fastest grower priced near the bottom. The premium tracks category position instead.

Aug 09, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Spending Like a Hyperscaler

SpaceXAI reported $18.37b of capex in its first public quarter, $15.83b of it AI infrastructure, against a $13.2b consensus. Amazon spent $53.1b in the same quarter, Alphabet $44.9b, Microsoft $41.0b & Meta $31.1b, & sequential dollar additions were comparable across all five. The difference is funding : operating cash flow covers 155% of capex at …

Aug 05, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Racing to Sustain Jevons Paradox

Hyperscalers declared AI capacity-constrained on Q2 2026 calls. HBM3e memory rose 20% & HBM4 is forecast to double, while B200 spot rentals have held flat. Model makers are segmenting into premium, mid-market, & value tiers to keep Jevons' paradox alive through the coming shock.

Aug 04, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

AWS's Road to a Trillion

Recognize when to aggressively invest in infrastructure to capture market share, even at the cost of short-term cash flow. Prioritize long-term growth potential over immediate profitability, especially when competitors are hesitant to make similar commitments.

Jul 30, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Yeltsin in the AI Aisle

Recognize that market segmentation can create opportunities for legacy products to thrive alongside newer offerings, as diverse buyer needs lead to unexpected preferences. Prioritize understanding the specific needs of your target audience to tailor your solutions, rather than solely chasing the latest advancements.

Jul 23, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

AI Engineering Productivity Isn't Normal

Expecting a 3x productivity increase from AI tools requires not just adoption but a fundamental redesign of workflows and team dynamics. Shift your focus from merely implementing technology to creating an operating discipline that fully leverages AI's capabilities.

Jul 21, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

Mega-rounds drive 81% of Q2 funding

Prioritize securing larger funding rounds to enhance financial stability and growth potential. This approach can also be applied to resource allocation in product development, ensuring that high-impact projects receive the necessary investment.

Jul 16, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

AI Colander

Focus on the retention metrics of your product and continuously assess how they compare to industry benchmarks, as customer loyalty can shift rapidly. Be prepared to adapt your strategy and offerings every few weeks to maintain competitive advantage and meet evolving user expectations.

Jul 13, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

XBOX Cuts; Bundling and Internet Solvency; Transactions, Coordination, and Sunk Costs

Recognize when a strategy is failing and be prepared to pivot quickly, even if it means making tough decisions like layoffs. Prioritize flexibility and responsiveness over sunk costs to better align resources with future opportunities.

Jul 08, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

SpaceX's $60B Cursor deal and 3 coding AI startups to watch

Invest in emerging technologies that align with your strategic vision, as they can provide significant competitive advantages. Prioritize partnerships or acquisitions that enhance your capabilities and market position in the long term.

Jun 30, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

The CIO's Choices Are Clear in 2026

Focus investments on sectors that align with emerging priorities, like AI and security, while reconsidering resources allocated to traditional software categories facing disruption. Shift your product strategy to emphasize essential capabilities that leverage AI, ensuring your offerings remain relevant and competitive in the evolving market landscape.

Jun 30, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

My Vibe Coding Adventure: Ten Takeaways

Focus on creating experiences that resonate personally with users, as this fosters deeper engagement and loyalty. Prioritize user feedback loops to refine your product based on genuine interactions rather than assumptions.

Jun 24, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

2026.43: A New Era

The best Stratechery content from the week of October 19, 2026, including the best iPad but worst phone, SS Sarandos in a storm, and You Can See Everything.

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

14 repeat founders building agentic commerce

Some of the founders who helped build online shopping are now preparing for AI agents to do the buying. The group includes Marc Lore, who sold Jet.com to Walmart, and Scot Wingo, who took e-commerce software company ChannelAdvisor public. Alongside … The post 14 repeat founders building agenti…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy Not Boring

Weekly Dose of Optimism #216

Cancer Drugs, The Nuclear Company, Warhound, Consciousness, Marathon Alchemy + Extra Doses

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

Executive Interview: weldXpert

Selcuk Y., Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of weldXpert, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company.   How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? Our software, weldXpert, … The post Executive Interview: weldXpert appear…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

CEO Interview: Toqen.app

Anton Minin Baranovskii, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Toqen.app, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company.   How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? My market … The post CEO Interview: Toqen.app appeared first…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

CEO Interview: WildPlanner

Olivia Bedford, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of WildPlanner, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company.   How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? We really describe … The post CEO Interview: WildPlanner appeared f…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy CB Insights

CEO Interview: Vital Coverage Insurance Services

Justin Krone, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Vital Coverage Insurance Services, tells CB Insights how they view the market, customer needs, and their company.   How do you define your market and where does your company fit into that space? … The post CEO Interview: Vital Coverage Insura…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

Sharp Tech on Video: Netflix Angst, the End of the Internet, and Meta’s VR Glasses

Sharp Tech is, for the first time, available on video. You have two ways to consume it: YouTube, and here on Stratechery

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

How Large is the AI Circle?

Every major build-out has two phases per Carlota Perez: infrastructure, then the applications that pay for it. The telecom internet build-out ran capex twelve times ahead of application revenue at the 2000 peak, & took seven years to get application revenue above 10% of capex, & ten to reach 48%. AI…

Oct 23, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

An Interview with Craig Moffett About SpaceX and Bubbles

An interview with Craig Moffett about SpaceX, from launch to broadband to mobile, plus how he is applying the lessons of the dot-com bubble to today.

Oct 22, 2026

Strategy Tomasz Tunguz

Closing Eight Figure Deals in Two Weeks

Bardia Shahali, VP of Sales at Granola, joins Office Hours to explain how AI-era sales teams run smaller because revenue per rep multiplies, why comp plans moved from annual to quarterly, & why the sales pod splits by layer between infrastructure & application companies.

Oct 22, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

Presented by Stripe

Stratechery is now presented by Stripe. What that means for me, for you, and for the future of Stratechery content.

Oct 21, 2026

Strategy Stratechery

Netflix Earnings, Business or Franchise, Disney’s Deal

Netflix has a solid business, which is exactly the problem: the company increasingly seems like a business and not a franchise, at least in terms of growth.

Oct 21, 2026

Strategy Sequoia Capital

Partnering with Whop: Bet on Yourself

Steven, Cameron and their team have built an all-in-one platform for the next generation of entrepreneurs.

Oct 21, 2026

Strategy Sequoia Capital

Partnering with Blacksmith

JP, Aayush and Maru are building infrastructure for developers to validate and ship trustworthy code as fast as agents can write it.

Oct 21, 2026

Strategy Y Combinator Blog

How Vin Bui became engineer #1 at Nowadays — and started treating it like his own company

Vin found Nowadays on Work at a Startup, saw a codebase he could fix, and joined as the first engineer. Now he builds AI voice tools and mentors the team.

Oct 20, 2026

Strategy Y Combinator Blog

How Ryder Kemper became employee #7 at Corgi Insurance — and never left San Francisco

Ryder flew to SF for a work trial, moved furniture in a Mystery Machine bus, and decided to stay. Here's what building from day one looks like.

Oct 19, 2026

Strategy Not Boring

Weekly Dose of Optimism #215

Cammarata Saves Humanity, “Flying” Roadster, Arrowhead Cuts Tau, Robots, EPIC, Ben Wilson + Extra Doses

Oct 16, 2026

Strategy Not Boring

Runway: Learning From Watching the World

A Co-Written Essay with Runway Co-CEO Anastasis Germanidis

Oct 13, 2026

Strategy Sequoia Capital

TypeSafe: The Jevolution

What if machine intelligence were as dependable as a database query?

Oct 10, 2026

Strategy Not Boring

Weekly Dose of Optimism #214

Nobel, Matter Compiler, Anduril Shipyard, Mouth Cancer Patch, Biohub Virtual Cell + Extra Doses

Oct 09, 2026

Strategy Sequoia Capital

Partnering with Catalyst: Turning Ideas into Trades

Dylan and Justin’s AI agents are making sophisticated investments available to anyone.

Oct 08, 2026

Strategy Sequoia Capital

Partnering with Mecka: Bringing AI to the Physical World

Josh and Jason are building the data and deployment layer for physical AI.

Oct 07, 2026

Strategy Not Boring

Weekly Dose of Optimism #213

Starship Orbital, America.gov, Matic Master Plan, Freckle, Heart Age + Extra Doses

Oct 02, 2026

Strategy Y Combinator Blog

Vivian Midha Shen and Raphael Schaad Join YC as General Partners

We’re thrilled to announce that Vivian Midha Shen and Raphael Schaad are joining Y Combinator as our newest General Partners.

Oct 01, 2026

Strategy Benedict Evans

Ways to think about token pricing

AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will supply, demand, price, capacity and capex get back into equilibrium? Today, model labs can name their price, but why won’t they end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure?

Jul 09, 2026

Strategy Y Combinator Blog

Christopher Golda and Grey Baker Join YC as General Partners

We're excited to announce that Christopher Golda and Grey Baker are joining YC as General Partners.

Jun 16, 2026

Strategy Y Combinator Blog

Diana Hu Is YC's Newest Managing Partner

We're thrilled to announce that Diana Hu has been promoted to Managing Partner at Y Combinator. Few people have built a startup from zero and also shipped tech to 100 million people. Diana has done both.

Jun 11, 2026

Strategy Benedict Evans

Predicting AI job exposure

Many people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and…

May 24, 2026

Strategy Benedict Evans

How will OpenAI compete?

OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage will come from new experie…

Feb 19, 2026